January’s housing index, compiled by the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™, increased by 0.3% since December 2017, coming in only slightly higher than the average increase for the month of January.
Of the 11 Canadian metropolitan areas, only four showed gains – Toronto (.2%), Victoria (.2%), Vancouver (.1%) and Montreal (.1%). For Montreal, it the 13th consecutive month to record an increase. Montreal and Vancouver were the only markets surveyed whose index reached an all-time high in January.
All other cities showed declining indexes this month: Hamilton (−0.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (‑0.2%), Edmonton (−0.3%), Calgary (−0.3%), Halifax (-1.0%), Winnipeg (−1.1%) and Quebec City (−2.0%).
For Toronto, the index rise represents a break in a six month spell of decreases. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index (1) on which the index is based rose for the third consecutive month. This firming is entirely attributed to condo dwellings – the smoothed index for non-condo units fell in January for the sixth consecutive month.
In Vancouver, there has been no decline for the past nine months. Over this period, Vancouver has seen a cumulative rise of 14.5%, of which condo units accounted for 18.2% and all other housing accounted for 11.4%.
The Canada-wide composite increased 8.7% over the past 12 months, which is the smallest year-over-year rise since May 2016. The 12 month rise was led by Vancouver (16.9%), Victoria (12.3%) and Hamilton (9.8%).
Ottawa-Gatineau (5.6%), Montreal (5.4%), Winnipeg (3.6%) and Halifax (2.5%) showed 12 month indexes that were below the country average, yet still respectable.
The rise was minimal Calgary (0.1%), while there was zero increase or decrease in Edmonton, and a decrease of 1.2% in Quebec City compared to a year earlier.
In the 14 markets excluded from the composite, there were no decreases. The gains varied widely from 2.8% in Sudbury to 21.4% in Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.).
A note on the methodology:
The data used to calculate the index on a month to month basis is pulled from closed sales registered in the provincial land registry, which include both Centris and private/FSBO sales. The home price trend is illustrated using moving averages over the last three months of raw indexes, from the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index.™ This procedure smooths out month-to-month fluctuations. For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca