The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its latest housing market outlook for 2019-2020. According to the report, home sales will keep increasing until 2020, when starts are expected to decline.
Activity on the resale market is expected to accelerate modestly in the coming years.
Strong employment growth in Quebec, as well as an aging population and immigration is expected to continue increasing housing starts and sales of existing homes in Québec. Prices will trend upward in 2019. Quebec can expect more condominium projects to be built in the next 2 years. In the resale market, demand for single-family detached homes will remain relatively strong.
In Montreal’s Census Metropolitan Area
In the Montréal CMA, we can expect vigorous construction in the condo and rental apartment segments. Real estate sales will continue increasing until 2010. Market conditions will continue to favour sellers, which means that prices will continue growing in response to heavy competition. Growth in the average price of homes will be higher than the annual average of the last few years, which was about 2.5%.
Market growth in prices, sales and new starts is forecasted for all other Quebec CMAs in the coming two years with the exception of Sanguenay, where the market is expected to remain stable.
Nationally, housing starts are projected to level off by 2020. Average price growth will be modest.
Canadian GDP2 and household income growth are forecasted to soften and stabilize at a more sustainable pace. Population growth will prompt some new construction, but at a slower pace than in previous years. This is because net international migration is decreasing. Moreover, with interest rates rising, demand for housing will moderate and resale market conditions will ease.
- Total housing starts: 204,500 (high) – 193,700 (low)
- MLS sales in 2019: 497,400 (high) – 478,400 (low)
- Average MLS price in 2019: $521,600 (high) – $501,400 (low)
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