The Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) released its 2019 real estate forecast today, in cooperation with Desjardins.
TL;DR: Montreal is expected to perform better than the rest of Quebec in 2019, with both sales and prices continuing on an upward trend. The hottest neighborhoods are Outremont, Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, Plateau-Mont-Royal, the Southwest, and the West Island. Condominiums are seeing the most sales while ‘plexes are seeing the highest appreciation rates. Contact us to request a list of hottest investment opportunities in 2019.
A summary of 2018 real estate activity in Quebec:
Record sales rates were achieved both in 2017 and 2018 in Quebec. Total transactions on Centris exceeded 86,000 transactions.
While West Canada and Ontario have been experiencing a notable decline in activity, with BC leading the drop, Quebec has shown a 5% increase in all categories combined.
Montreal and Gatineau’s CMA’s are both in seller’s market territory, while Quebec City, Sherbrooke and Sanguenay are presently buyer’s markets. In Trois-Rivières, the Quebec area with the most affordable real estate prices, the market is balanced.
A summary of 2018 real estate activity in Montreal:
Montreal’s real estate market outperformed other provinces in 2018.
“Days on market” (time to sell) has been falling steadily since 2017, while prices are increasing. Bidding wars and offers above asking price are increasingly common in some Montreal neighborhoods. Condominiums are the hottest property category when it comes to sales, and ‘plexes have seen the best price growth.
“Abundant condominium construction in recent years has not lowered prices as some observers feared. Demand has held strong in the resale market, as reflected by the 15% increase in sales in this segment to date in 2018,” said Paul Cardinal, QFREB market analysis manager.
Suburban areas led the way in 2018
In 2017, the strongest sales growth was seen on the Island of Montreal. In 2018 this changed as the suburbs overtook Montreal Island, led by the South Shore and Laval area. South Shore saw a 12% increase in sales while Laval saw a 7% increase. The North Shore came just ahead of Montreal at a 4% increase in sales.
Bidding over the asking price was common in all property categories, especially for plexes. 17% of ‘plexes sold in 2018 received an offer over asking price. Overbidding is most prevalent in Outremont, Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, Plateau-Mont-Royal, the Southwest, and the West Island.
2019 forecast for Quebec
QFREB is optimistic about 2019, due to a strong labour market, rising disposable income, and high consumer confidence. The real estate market is expected to continue its upward trend in the first half of 2019, with a slight slow down in the second half due to rising interest rates. Five year mortgage rates are expected to increase by half a percentage point towards the end of 2019, up to 6%.
The QFREB predicts a slight 1% increase in the number of transactions in 2019, up to a new record of 87,650 sales.
Price of single-family homes are expected to increase by 3%, to $257,000.
Greater Montreal in 2019
QFREB expects Montreal’s residential real estate market to perform better than the rest of Quebec next year, due to stronger population growth and net migration rates.
The number of residential real estate transactions are expected to hit a new high of 47,600 in 2019.
Appreciation rates will also be better in Montreal compared to elsewhere in Quebec. Single family homes are forecasted to increase by 4% to $332,000. The average condominium is expected to rise by 3% in price to $263,000.
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