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The Federation of Real Estate Boards of Quebec (FCIQ) recently published a market analysis entitled L’impact des tendances démographiques sur le marché de la revente au Québec (in French) on the likely impact of demographic trends on the Québec resale market over the next two decades.
.The report is primarily based on the demographic projections of the “Institut de la Statistique du Québec,” and takes an in-depth look at the relationship between natural growth rates, immigration rates, and residential real estate tendencies.
.To summarize the findings, the population of the province’s six CMAs should increase until 2036, with the exception of the Saguenay CMA which should start to decline in 2029. The aging of the population and reduction in average household size will favour condominiums, which suggests that new will condo starts continue to occupy an important place in large urban centres and gain ground in some smaller centres.
Population growth on a steady rise, but not due to natural increase
The population in the Quebec province is projected to increase from 8.0 million in 2011 to 8.4 million in 2016 and will further increase to 9.4 million in 2036. The total number of Quebecers is expected to reach 10.1 million in 2061.
Fewer households = Fewer SFH housing starts
Immigration has a positive effect on the resale market
Immigration will favour the condominium market in particular
The ‘booming baby-boomer’ segment also benefits the condo market
In addition, the number of households headed by people aged 75 and over will double over the next 20 years to reach 801,265 households in 2036.
Thirdly, the dynamic growth of households in the areas surrounding Montreal, Outaouais and the Capitale-Nationale as well as in the Montreal area itself, suggests stronger sales growth in the property market in these regions.
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